A University of Kentucky Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment researcher is spearheading a four-year study into how Universal Free School Meals (UFSM) impacts household food expenditure, children’s diet quality and long-term health outcomes.  

Supported by a $800,000 grant from the USDA’s Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, the project is led by Shuoli Zhao, an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and expert in behavioral economics, food marketing and nutrition policy. 

For millions of families, school meal programs provide a crucial safety net. As the second-largest food assistance initiative in the United States, these programs ensure children receive essential calories, often accounting for up to half of their daily intake. Recent legislation in eight states has made UFSM permanent, eliminating income-based eligibility in favor of school-wide implementation. This shift has sparked debate about its economic feasibility, dietary benefits and long-term health effects—issues that Zhao and his collaborators aim to address. 

“This research is timely and essential,” Zhao said. “The universal model could reduce administrative burdens and eliminate the stigma associated with free or reduced-price meals. But we also need to understand its broader impacts, particularly on household food spending, diet quality, and children’s overall well-being.” 

The study has three primary goals: 

1. Economic household impact 

The research will quantify how UFSM alters household food expenditures by analyzing grocery scanner data from major retailers. USDA estimated that low-income families, who are no longer purchasing breakfast or lunch for school-aged children, save an estimated $800 annually per child. This reduction could shift purchasing behaviors and costs of shopping baskets, influencing local food demand on a large scale.  

2. Dietary quality and food security 

School meals have long been tied to efforts combatting food insecurity, but their role in improving the quality of student diets is unclear. Using data from the restricted-access National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) utilizing the Kentucky Research Data Center (KRDC), the study will assess whether UFSM encourages healthier eating habits. Researchers will examine differences in diet quality between comparable students with access to universal meals and those without, providing a national perspective on whether these programs meet nutritional goals. 

3. Health outcomes 

The research also explores the long-term health effects of UFSM, focusing on childhood obesity and mental health. With access to longitudinal data from the Arkansas Children’s Research Institute (ACRI), the team will track students' physical and emotional well-being over several years. Zhao says this allows the researchers to explore how consistent access to free school meals influences health trends beyond the classroom. The paper will also investigate disparities, particularly among economically disadvantaged and racially diverse populations. 

A collaborative effort across institutions 

The project brings together researchers from two other institutions, including Qingxiao Li at Louisiana State University and Michael Thomsen at ACRI.  

“Each institution contributes unique expertise, from food expenditure data analysis led by Qingxiao Li at LSU to longitudinal health studies supported by Michael Thomsen at ACRI,” Zhao said. “This collaboration truly strengthens our ability to address complex questions. By pooling resources and expertise, we can provide a comprehensive view of how universal free meals affect families and communities.” 

Addressing persistent challenges 

While UFSM programs aim to level the playing field, challenges remain. Critics have raised concerns about program costs, potential waste from uneaten healthy foods and the meals' adequacy.  

Zhao acknowledged these concerns but emphasized the importance of data-driven solutions.  

“We’ve seen tremendous progress in improving school meal offerings, particularly since the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act," he said. "But we need to ensure these programs deliver real benefits, especially in improving diet quality and building healthy eating habits.” 

Zhao’s other ongoing work navigates behavioral nudges to encourage healthier eating among students, such as peer competitions and incentives to reduce food waste. Over time, his research expanded to explore broader policy issues, culminating in this comprehensive study on UFSM. 

“Making meals universally accessible eliminates barriers, not just economic ones but also social stigmas,” Zhao said. “It ensures that all children, regardless of background, can sit down to the same nutritious meal.” 

A program with broad implications 

Zhao said the implications of UFSM extend far beyond school cafeterias.  

“The ripple effects touch everything from family budgets to public health systems. For families, reduced grocery costs free up resources for other needs. Consistent access to healthy meals can shape lifelong eating habits for children, potentially reducing healthcare costs associated with diet-related illnesses.” 

The study’s findings could inform future policy decisions, particularly as debates over UFSM continue at both state and federal levels.  

“Policymakers need evidence, not assumptions,” Zhao said. “This research will help fill critical knowledge gaps and provide a clearer picture of what works and what doesn’t.” 

Looking ahead 

The project, which began in August 2024, will conclude in 2028. While two out of three aims of the research rely on national datasets, the third aim focuses on Arkansas as a pilot state for more detailed analysis.  

Zhao is optimistic that the study’s findings will address lingering questions about UFSM and pave the way for more equitable and effective food assistance programs for America’s youth. 

“Access to nutritious meals is about more than just filling stomachs,” he said. “It’s about giving every child a fair chance to thrive and grow.” 

This material is based upon work that is supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, under award number 2024-67023-42550. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Department of Agriculture. 

### 

Writer: Jordan Strickler, jstrickler@uky.edu       

The Martin-Gatton College of Agriculture, Food and Environment is an Equal Opportunity Organization with respect to education and employment and authorization to provide research, education information and other services only to individuals and institutions that function without regard to economic or social status and will not discriminate on the basis of race, color, ethnic origin, national origin, creed, religion, political belief, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, pregnancy, marital status, genetic information, age, veteran status, physical or mental disability or reprisal or retaliation for prior civil rights activity.